The China offset ran out in August: growth from every other market halved in a month
Strip China out of JNTO's August count and arrivals from every other market grew 11.3%, half the 22.4% they managed in July. That deceleration, in Taiwan and Hong Kong above all, rather than any new fall in Chinese arrivals, is what turned the national total from flat to a 9.6% decline.
Japan's inbound arrivals fell 9.6% in August to 3,098,900, the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) reported on 16 September, and floortok covered the release the next day: Chinese arrivals down 59.0% under Beijing's travel advisory, fourteen markets at August records. The number worth a second look is one JNTO does not print. Take China out, and arrivals from every other market grew 11.3% in August, to 2,680,900 from 2,409,659 a year earlier. In July the same group had grown 22.4%, to 3,013,900 from 2,462,554. The offset that had kept the national total flat in July halved in a month, and in our view that, more than the Chinese figure, is why August turned negative.